PUBLIC SECTOR & FINANCE
Public budget forecasting: a number you can defend to a council
Public budget forecasting with TIMi estimates how a spending or revenue line carried by an administration or a local authority will evolve, when the budget is voted and the authority is accountable to elected officials and citizens, and shows the factors behind the forecast.
Built for a vote
A forecast whose factors you can document in front of an assembly.
Sovereign data
Sensitive social data stays on your own standard server.
Accountable
Arguments that elected officials and citizens can check.
HOW IT WORKS
How public budget forecasting works.
Three steps, in one engine, on a standard server with no cluster.
1. Prepare the data
Anatella gathers the history of the budget line, the demographic and socio-economic data of the territory and the regulatory decisions already known that will affect it, then structures them into variables.
2. Build the model
Modeler projects the evolution of the line from historical trends and the structural factors identified as influential for the territory or the population concerned.
3. Forecast and explain
Each forecast comes with its factors, such as demographic change, the trend of a social scheme or the effect of a reform already voted, and not only a projected number.
Anatella
ModelerWHAT THE PUBLIC CONTEXT CHANGES
A voted budget is a commitment.
A private budget can be adjusted during the year with some flexibility. A voted public budget commits the administration for the whole fiscal year.
Defended in front of an assembly
A budget has to be defended before a deliberative assembly or a council. A forecast that explains its factors, instead of a figure imposed without justification, becomes a tool for dialogue with elected officials.
Include reforms already voted
A reform that is already voted and dated can be added as an input to adjust the projection from its effective date.
Sovereign by design
The model runs on a standard server, with no external cloud, which addresses the data sovereignty concerns specific to public administrations.
EXPLAINABILITY
A forecast gives an amount. The factors give the argument.
A forecast alone gives an expected amount, not what justifies it. A white-box model shows the factors in the projection, so the finance department of a local authority can document and defend a budget in front of an assembly with verifiable arguments.
For public finance departments
A gap between the voted budget and actual outturn can be anticipated and explained before the vote, instead of being observed and justified afterwards.
For transparency toward citizens
A forecast based on documented factors answers more directly an expectation of accountability toward citizens.
For model owners
Modeler’s built-in Drift Report shows when a model loses accuracy, so you update it when needed instead of on a fixed calendar. Review the model at each budget cycle.
DATA
What data a public budget forecast uses.
Anatella connects to more than 80 sources, so this data can be gathered without prior custom development.
Budget line history
Over several fiscal years.
Territorial data
Demographic and socio-economic data.
Reforms and decisions
Already voted and upcoming.
Local context
Local economic activity, structure of the population.
PROOF
Public budgets in production.
A French département is our reference for this use case. Minsalud shows the same sovereignty constraints at national scale.
97.2% reliability on the 2025 RSA budget
Backtest on 2025 with 2017 to 2024 data: 2.78% margin of error, built in 8 weeks by 3 people on one desktop computer, with no additional infrastructure.
30 TB processed on national infrastructure
Colombia’s Ministry of Health handles 400 million new records a year on a sovereign infrastructure, with no external dependency.
FAQ
Common questions.
How is this different from general budget forecasting?
The modeling principle is the same. The difference is the context: a public budget is voted and carries a duty of transparency toward citizens, which makes an explainable model more valuable than a black box.
Does it work for a specific social scheme?
Yes. A budget line tied to a particular scheme (aid, allowance, benefit) can be modeled by taking into account the demographic and economic factors that influence its evolution.
Can it include a reform that is voted but not yet applied?
Yes. A reform that is already voted and dated can be added as an input to adjust the projection from its effective date.
Do we need data science skills inside the administration?
Modeler’s AutoML generates and selects the models automatically. In-house skills remain useful to interpret the results and present them to decision makers, but are not essential to produce the forecast itself.
SEE FOR YOURSELF
Test it on your own data.
Run TIMi on your own data with a free trial, or talk to us about your case.
